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Annual Threat Assessment DNI

Code: E09

Primary project information

Lead: US Defence Intelligence Agency
Type of activity: Statement for the U.S. Senate
Date of Publication: 16.02.2011
Duration: N/A
Summary: This statement goes into extensive detail about numerous state and non-state actors, crosscutting political, economic, and military developments and transnational trends, all of which constitute US's strategic and tactical landscape. Although the assumption is that counterterrorism, counterproliferation, and counterintelligence are at the immediate forefront of US security concerns, it is virtually impossible to rank—in terms of long-term importance—the numerous, potential threatsto U.S. national security. The United States no longer faces—as in the Cold War—one dominant threat. Rather, it is the multiplicity and interconnectedness of potential threats—and the actorsbehind them—that constitute our biggest challenge. Indeed, even the three categories noted above are also inextricably linked, reflecting a quickly-changing international environment of rising new powers, rapid diffusion of power to non-state actors and ever greater access by individuals and small groups to lethal technologies. The US Intelligence Community believes it is theirr duty to work together as an integrated team to understand and master this complexity. By providing betterstrategic and tactical intelligence, they can partner more effectively with Government officials at home and abroad to protect US interests.
Financed by: DNI - Director of National Intelligence
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: security, terrorism, drug trafficking, intelligence threats, cyber threats international organized crime, Export Controls and Economic Imbalances, European Debt Crisis, threats to space systems, energy security, water scarcity, strategic health threats
Main report (full title): Statement for the Record on the Worldwide Threat Assessment of theU.S. Intelligence Community for the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence

GRAND CHALLENGES

Economic Challenges: Uneven economic recovery; European debt crisis; expansion centers on the emerging markets;
Economic Challenges Shortlist: Uneven economic recovery; European debt crisis; expansion centers on the emerging markets;
Geopolitical Challenges: Afghan national security force development; Afghan governance challenges; Afghan drug trade; development in Russia; development in Caucasus and Central Asia; development in the Balkans (Kosovo); development in Latin America (Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Haiti) like narco violence, populistic efforts to limit democratic freedom, slow recovery from natural disasters;
Geopolitical Challenges Shortlist: Afghan national security force development; Afghan governance challenges; Afghan drug trade; development in Russia; development in Caucasus and Central Asia; development in the Balkans (Kosovo); development in Latin America (Cuba, Mexico, Venezuela, Haiti) like narco violence, populistic efforts to limit democratic freedom, slow recovery from natural disasters;
Societal Challenges: drug threat from Mexico, Colombia, Canada;
Societal Challenges Shortlist: drug threat;
Technical Challenges: cyber threat
Technical Challenges Shortlist: cyber threat
Health Challenges: pandemics;
Health Challenges Shortlist: measures, and the delivery of best practice across Europe
Cross-cutting Challenges Shortlist: Basic, translational, and clinical research are the foundation of
Other Challenges: terrorism; proliferation of weapons of mass destruction; protection of sensitive technologies from third parties; threats to space system e.g. interference of radiofrequencies; international organised crime; espionage; unauthorised disclosure of sensitive and classified U.S. government information (WikiLeaks);
Other Challenges Shortlist: as well as better coherence and coordination are badly needed

Summary of relevant aspects

Background information: Annual Threat Assessment of theUS Intelligence Communityfor the Senate Carried out by a Select Committee on Intelligence under Dennis C. Blair Director of National Intelligence
February 2, 2010

Scenarios

Actions/solutions implied: counterintelligence;
Who benefits from the actions taken?: U.S.; responsible citizens and their governments everywhere

Meta information

Time horizon: 2011
Methods: intelligence, threat assessment,
Target Group: U.S. government
Objectives: statement on political, economic and military developments and transnational trends which all constitutes nation's strategic and tactical landscape,
Countries covered: US, Latin America, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, North Korea,
ERA actors/stakeholders mentioned: N/A
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Jukka Hyvönen
Rapporteur's organization: VTT
Entry Date: 1.9.2012