VERA – Forward Visions on the European Research Area

VERA is funded by the European Union's FP7 programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290705

The World in 2025. Rising Asia and Socio-ecological Transition

Code: E05

Primary project information

Lead: European Commission – DG Research – Directorate L – Science, Economy and Society Unit L2 – Research in the Economic, Social Sciences and Humanities – Prospective
Additional project partners: Members of the Expert Group “The World in 2025” Marc ABELES (EHESS, France) Samir AMIN (Forum du Tiers Monde, Egypt) Gijs BEETS (NIDI, Netherlands) Joao CARACA (Fondaçaõ Gulbenkian, Portugal) Lionel FONTAGNE (CEPII, France) Thierry GAUDIN (Fondation 2100, France) Nicole GNESSOTTO (CNAM, France) Josephine GREEN (Philips, United Kingdom – Netherlands) Giovanni GREVI (EU Institute for Security Studies, Italy) Irina KUKLINA (Kurchatov Institute, Russia) Geoff MULGAN (Young Foundation, United Kingdom) Richard PORTES (London Business School, United Kingdom) Mu RONGPING (Académie des Sciences, China) Luc SOETE (UNU MERIT, Netherlands) Uno SVEDIN (FORMAS, Sweden) Jacques THEYS (Ministère de l'Ecologie, France) Loukas TSOUKALIS (University of Athens, Greece) Commission officials who participated in the expert group: Jean-Michel BAER (European Commission, DG Research) Pierre VALETTE (European Commission, DG Research) Paraskevas CARACOSTAS (European Commission, DG Research) Jean-Claude BURGELMAN (European Commission, DG Research) Elie FAROULT (European Commission, DG Research) Domenico ROSSETTI di VALDALBERO (European Commission, DG Research) Vasco CAL (European Commission, Bureau of European Policy Advisers)
Type of activity: FLA
Date conducted: 2008
Date of Publication: 2009
Duration: N/A
Summary: The World in 2025” first underlines the major future trends: geopolitical transformations in terms of population, economic development, international trade or poverty. Secondly, it elucidates the tensions: natural resources (food, energy, water and minerals), migrations or urbanisation. Lastly, transitional pathways have been drawn: towards a new production and consumption model, towards new rural-urban dynamics, towards a new gender and intergenerational balance.
Financed by: European Commission – DG Research – Directorate L – Science, Economy and Society Unit L2 – Research in the Economic, Social Sciences and Humanities – Prospective
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: demography, migration, urbanisation, cohesion, macro-economics and trade, employment, services, environment and climate change, energy, access to resources,
education, research, technology, innovation, economic governance, defence, security and intercultural dialogue.
Main report (full title): ‘The World in 2025 – Rising Asia and socio-ecological transition’

GRAND CHALLENGES

Economic Challenges: Asia, with increasing inequalities,becomes the first producer and exporter of the world
Economic Challenges Shortlist: Asia becomes the first producer and exporter of the world;
Geopolitical Challenges: In 2025, nearly two thirds of the world population will live in Asia; The new geopolitics of energy is characterized by a relative balance of the strategic importance of the Middle East, Russia and the Caucasus; More than 50 % of the major ore reserves are located in very poor countries
Geopolitical Challenges Shortlist: In 2025, nearly two thirds of the world population will live in Asia; The new geopolitics of energy is characterized by a relative balance of the strategic importance of the Middle East, Russia and the Caucasus; More than 50 % of the major ore reserves are located in very poor countries
Societal Challenges: International migrations will develop and, without an important inflow of immigrants, the European population would start to decrease as from 2012; A third of the world population is undernourished, on the other hand obesity increases in developed countries; Three billion people will be missing water in 2025
Societal Challenges Shortlist: International migrations will develop and the European population would start to decrease as from 2012; A third of the world population is undernourished, on the other hand obesity increases in developed countries; Three billion people will be missing water in 2025
Technical Challenges: Asia catches up with (and overtakes?) the United States and Europe in the area of research;
Technical Challenges Shortlist: Asia catches up with the United States and Europe in the area of research;
Health Challenges: The global health situation is improving but new risks are emerging;
Health Challenges Shortlist: The global health situation is improving but new risks are emerging;

Summary of relevant aspects

Background information: tools for collaborative work and intensive deliberations at facilitated workshops.

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Stabilising the world, recognising the new key-actors: The transition towards a multi-polar world and world governance;The politico-cultural transition towards a new universalism;The transition towards a “large integrated Europe” and a “global Europe”;The transition towards a new “socio-ecological” production model ;The urban transition and the new “territorial dynamics”; The demographic transition and “active ageing”

Meta information

Time horizon: -2025
Methods: expert group; desk study; (indicators, modelling, Delphi, technological roadmaps, scenario approach, participatory workshops mentioned in the foreword)
Target Group: European Union
Objectives: The World in 2025” first underlines the major future trends: geopolitical transformations in terms of population, economic development, international trade or poverty. Secondly, it elucidates the tensions: natural resources (food, energy, water and minerals), migrations or urbanisation. Lastly, transitional pathways have been drawn: towards a new production and consumption model, towards new rural-urban dynamics, towards a new gender and intergenerational balance.
Countries covered: N/A
ERA actors/stakeholders mentioned: EU, Commission, Member states,
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Jukka Hyvönen
Rapporteur's organization: VTT
Entry Date: 18.05.2012