VERA – Forward Visions on the European Research Area

VERA is funded by the European Union's FP7 programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290705

SESTI - Scanning for Emerging Science and Technology Issues

Code: D05

Primary project information

Lead: TNO
Additional project partners: AIT, IPTS, Malta Council for Science and Technology, Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, TNO Innovation Policy Group
Type of activity: four different documents: 2 working papers, 2 workshop papers on health and energy sectors: Major trends, challenges and emerging issues in Energy (2011), Major trends, challenges and emerging issues in Health (2010), Energy: Weak Signals and Emerging Issues for European Policy (2011), Health: Weak Signals and Emerging Issues for European Policy
Date conducted: 2010-2011
Date of Publication: 2010-2011
Duration: 2009-2011
Summary: Today’s societal developments are often influenced by improbable events with possibly high impact. This increasing complexity and uncertainty is reflected in the growing demand for tools and approaches for anticipatory or strategic intelligence, such as scenario analysis, Delphi surveys and modeling and simulation tools. Several countries, Finland, the UK and the Netherlands, have initiated horizon scanning projects to identify disruptive events that are not on the RADAR of policy yet. SESTI is about identifying “Emerging Issues” that could have a potentially significant impact on society until 2030, are still not sufficiently recognized by policy makers and should (perhaps) get more attention by policy makers. SESTI is also a research project for exploring different methods like Weak Signal Scanning (forums, news, blogs, text-mining), Expert survey for identifying emerging issues,theory, methodology and evaluation and workshops with policy makers and experts. SESTI will address the following challenges: Methodology for identifying Weak Signals & Emerging Issues, Relationship between Weak Signals & Emerging Issues, Assessment and reliability check and Translation for policy makers. Often important events are preceded by a number of weak signals, that individually have been observed and noticed by different people, but not been put together to a larger picture. This means that often only from hindsight pieces of the puzzle are put together. SESTI aims to develop a mechanism for the early identification of newly emerging issues of importance to the European research infrastructure. By collecting weak signals and developing anticipatory intelligence, SESTI will provide the means for proactively addressing these challenges at European and national level. The project builds on and adds value to existing national structures and competences in foresight and horizon scanning to create synergies and exploit complementarities. SESTI aims to provide a transnational “foundation” to horizon scanning to enable efficient.
Web link: http://sesti.info/
Financed by: EU 7th FP
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: health, energy,
Main report (full title): see above document type

GRAND CHALLENGES

Economic Challenges: energy: high and unstable energy prices leading to increased vulnerability of economies
Economic Challenges Shortlist: increased vulnerability of economies because of high and unstable energy prices
Geopolitical Challenges: energy: energy insecurity with concentration of current reserves of oil and gas in a few politically sensitive and countries
Geopolitical Challenges Shortlist: insecure supply of energy; concentration of current oil and gas reserves in few, politically sensitive, countries
Societal Challenges: energy: to provide the backbone for electricity and gas to flow where it is needed, behavioural changes in the population (e.g. rebound effects, which means that the money saved by reduced energy use will be used for purchasing additional, energy consuming appliances)
Societal Challenges Shortlist: force behavioural change to e.g. counteract rebound effects, i.e. money safed by reduced energy use is used to purchase additional energy consuming appliances
Technical Challenges: energy: to upgrade energy infrastructure particularly in Member States that joined as of 2004 as well as in less developed regions, Europe is lacking the grid infrastructure which will enable renewables to develop and compete on an equal footing with traditional sources, New technical and economic concepts are required to make the transition of energy to a truly European level
Technical Challenges Shortlist: upgrade energy infrastructre, particularly in less developed regions; develop grid infrastructure to enable renewables to compete with traditional energy sources; new technical and economic concepts to actually implement energy transition
Health Challenges: Demographic and societal change, Rising expectations and consumerism, Health informatics and telemedicine, New medical technologies, Spiralling costs of healthcare provision
Health Challenges Shortlist: demographic and societal change; rising consumption; spiralling costs of healthcare provision
Other Challenges: energy: Decentralization (affect on system architecture)
Other Challenges Shortlist: affects of energy decentralisation of system architecture

Summary of relevant aspects

Aspects of ERA Governance: health: 1. Deepening the gap between health services? Diversity in medicine, 2. Happy aging? Mental health in ageing society, 3. Obesity: The global epidemic marches on, 4. Is prevention better than cure? Re‐prioritising health research for an ageing society 5. Personalised medicine: Luxury good for few?
Aspects of RTI Governance: energy:
1. Nuclear fusion technology has been on the horizon for a long time, but progress has been limited. Hybrid nuclear energy (combined fusion and fission) might be a more realistic proposition than pure fusion technology.
2. Renewables from the desert (DESERTEC). Opportunities for renewable generation of electricity on a massive scale, but significant issues with vulnerability, maintenance, materials, etc.
3. Bio‐mimics – generation of electricity and fuels based on enhanced vegetation and increased photosynthesis (through synthetic ways and through revitalisation of low productivity ecosytems)
4. Hydrogen economy risks – need to evaluate risk to atmosphere, climate change effects (e.g. cooling down the atmosphere)
5. Digging deeper for oil – need for proper evaluation of risk of disaster, with environmental and economic risks.
Background information: Today’s societal developments are often influenced by improbable events with possibly high impact. This increasing complexity and uncertainty is reflected in the growing demand for tools and approaches for anticipatory or strategic intelligence, such as scenario analysis, Delphi surveys and modelling and simulation tools. SESTI is about identifying “Emerging Issues” that could have a potentially significant impact on society until 2030; are still not sufficiently recognized by policy makers; should (perhaps) get more attention by policy makers. SESTI is also a research project for exploring different methods like :Weak Signal Scanning (forums, news, blogs, text-mining); Expert survey for identifying emerging issues; Theory, methodology and evaluation and Workshops with policy makers and experts.
SESTI will address the following challenges: Methodology for identifying Weak Signals & Emerging Issues; Relationship between Weak Signals & Emerging Issues; Assessment and reliability check and Translation for policy makers. The potential beneficiaries are then: Policy-makers; Strategists; Business analysts; Consultants; Researchers; NGOs and General public. SESTI aims to develop a mechanism for the early identification of newly emerging issues of importance to the European research infrastructure. By collecting weak signals and developing anticipatory intelligence, SESTI will provide the means for proactively addressing these challenges at European and national level.

Meta information

Time horizon: -2030
Methods: Weak Signal Scanning (forums, news, blogs, text-mining), Expert survey for identifying emerging issues, Theory, methodology and evaluation, Workshops with policy makers and experts
Target Group: policy-makers, strategists, business analysts, consultants, researchers, NGOs, general public
Objectives: 1.To develop methods and approaches for “weak signals” identification
2.To evaluate these methods and approaches in regards to their usefulness to the policy community
3.To set up a systematic monitoring approach for the identification of weak signals / emerging issues, including active participation of stakeholders user
4.To create an efficient working tool to share information between the project consortium and user community
5.The identification and analysis of emerging issues on the “future of research”, based on weak signals analysis
6.To involve the user community providing them with an ‘active’ stake in the project to ensure use of output and long-term success
7.To raise discussion on emerging issues at EU and national level, as well as linking the actor communities including policy-makers, strategists and researchers
8.To facilitate the use the project results at European and national level through selective involvement of relevant actors
9.To disseminate project results widely to potential users in policy, business and the research community
Countries covered: Europe
ERA actors/stakeholders mentioned: member states, Commission
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Jukka Hyvönen
Rapporteur's organization: VTT
Entry Date: June 12, 2012