VERA – Forward Visions on the European Research Area

VERA is funded by the European Union's FP7 programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290705

Agrimonde: Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050

Code: D02

Primary project information

Lead: Sébastien Treyer, (Project Head), AgroParisTech (Paris Institute of Technology for Life, Food and Environmental Sciences)
Additional project partners: Maryse Aoudaï, INRARémi Barré, INRA and CNAMJean-Marc Chaumet, INRABruno Dorin, CIRADIsabelle Karcher, INRATristan Le Cotty, CIRADSandrine Paillard, INRALaurent Parrot, CIRADTévécia Ronzon, INRA
Type of activity: foresight exercise
Date conducted: 06/2006-12/2008
Date of Publication: December 2009
Duration: 32 MONTHS
Summary: This foresight study explores the possible futures of farming and food systems worldwide in 2050. The study should pinpoint the fundamental issues with which agricultural research will be faced in order to give CIRAD and INRA the means to forecast and prepare for the future in terms of public research systems and priorities as well as of their strategic position on an international level.
Financed by: CIRAD (Centre de coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement) INRA (Institut National de la Recherche Agriculture)
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: agricultura research, farming and food systems
Main report (full title): Agrimonde® - Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050. Summary Report.


Societal Challenges: Inequalities in food and health
Societal Challenges Shortlist: Reduce inequalities in access to food and health
Health Challenges: Undernourishment; excessive food intake
Health Challenges Shortlist: Reduce number of undernourished people; Reduce nexcessive food intake
Cross-cutting Challenges: (Economic - Environmental - Geopolitical - Societal - Health) World's food and agricultural system: challenge of properly
feeding a population of nine billion individuals in 2050, while preserving the ecosystems from which other services are also expected: bioenergies, biodiversity, carbon storage, climate regulation, etc.
Cross-cutting Challenges Shortlist: Sustainable food and agricultural system, which provides food for growing population, but also bioenergies, biodiversity, carbon storage, climate regulation, etc.
Other Challenges: Satisfying growing demand for food; Development of environment-friendly agricultural practices
Other Challenges Shortlist: Satsify growing demand for food from growin global population; Develop environment-friendly agricultural practices

Summary of relevant aspects

Connecting fields: food security, deterioration of ecosystems, eating habits, demographic changes, interregional trade
Background information: Along with the necessary pursuit of research, there is a need to build a mechanism that actually allows for reflexivity and in-depth discussion. That is the objective of the Agrimonde foresight project, which should thus occupy a specific place in international evaluation and forecasting exercises, especially in the follow-up to the IAASTD1 and the discussions presently underway on the reform of the international agricultural research system. In view of the implications of these issues in research orientations and public policies, the presidents of INRA and CIRAD have asked us to "produce scenarios of global and regional evolution in agricultural production, consumption and trade, as well as in scientific and technical knowledge on agriculture, with a view to drawing conclusions on the possible roles for research, public policies and international regulations."


Scenario 1: Business-as-usual - scenario called Agrimonde GO (AGO)
Scenario 2: Rupture scenario called Agrimonde 1 (AG1): explores a world in 2050 that has been able to implement sustainable development through a drastic reduction of both undernourishment and excessive food intake, and a change of the technological paradigm
towards ecological intensification.
Who benefits from the actions taken?: The global society

Meta information

Time horizon: 2050
Methods: expert panel; interactive and iterative process, quantitative ("Agribiom") and qualitative (project team, working group, expert committee) analyses
Target Group: agricultural researchers, experts on food security and environmental issues
Objectives: 1) to design the modalities of strategic reflection based on a foresight approach, with the aim of illuminating research orientations in the fields of agriculture and food, in the broad sense of the term;
2) to initiate the process of debates and interactions on these topics, and their appropriation, on a national scale;
3) to promote the participation of French experts in international debates on the subject.
Countries covered: N/A
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Katharina Jarmai
Rapporteur's organization: AIT
Entry Date: 27.08.2012