VERA – Forward Visions on the European Research Area

VERA is funded by the European Union's FP7 programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290705

Future of Super Intelligent Transport Systems

Code: D01

Primary project information

Lead: STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends – Marie-Pauline van Voorst tot Voorst
Type of activity: Single issue, multidisciplinary
Date conducted: 2010-2012
Date of Publication: 2012
Duration: 2 YEARS
Summary: The purpose of the exercise is to offer business people, policy makers and politicians lines of approach to determine strategy, policymaking as well as initiatives for change by presenting future visions and an accompanying agenda for the future with respect to transportation of people and goods in the Netherlands of 2040. The main question of this foresight study is: why and how will the citizens of the Netherlands transport themselves and their goods 30 years from now super intelligently? In order to answer this question, a set of four possible future visions will be defined (not necessarily conceivably probable or perferable). Each of the future visions will be accompanied by an agenda for the future. It will outline strategic questions regarding a preferred transition model. A complete system change seems inevitable and technologically attainable options will be given as well as suggestions for 'no regret' activities, input for future feasibility studies, and questions for further scientific research and experiments.
Financed by: STT Netherlands Study Centre for Technology Trends and its beneficiaries (corporate andknowledge institutes and government)
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: intelligent transport systems, transport transition models, citizen transportation in the Netherlands
Main report (full title): forthcoming (fall 2012)

GRAND CHALLENGES

Mobility Challenges: Reinventing mobility is more than just “reinventing the car". It involves the development of a new mobility paradigm and a full-scale alteration of the transport system; The increasing speed at which time and place of social and commercial life takes place creates demand for new kinds, modes and scales of mobility.
Mobility Challenges Shortlist: reinventing mobility: new mobility paradigm and full-scale alteration of existing transport system; need for new kinds, modes and scales of mobility, due to increasing speed of (private and commercial) life
Cross-cutting Challenges: (Technological - Mobility) Mechatronics, nano-electronics, interconnectivity and intelligent software will increasingly play a role in people’s daily lives. These technologies affect all societal domains and will have a great impact across all sectors of society. These developments have an enormous effect on the attitude and behaviour of human beings; interaction between technology and its users becomes an ever more crucial factor in finding solutions for problems in any domain, including mobility. Hence, implementing new technological solutions requires an integral approach from different disciplines.
Cross-cutting Challenges Shortlist: impact of mechatronics, nano-electornicts, interconnectivity and intelligen software on people's daily lives - and mobility patterns; implement new technological solutions in finding solutions for problems concerned with mobility

Summary of relevant aspects

Connecting fields: urbanisation, demographic developments, individualisation, informatization and globalisation
Background information: In this study, transport is considered to be a function within a society. Transport is a derived activity required to fulfil other (personal) needs like work, education, doing groceries etc. In our opinion, an integral transport system includes both the transport of people and goods. Transport can be physical but also virtual or a combination of both. The term ‘Super Intelligently’ is to be interpreted not solely from a technological perspective, but also from the perspective of interaction between a machine, or intelligent network on the one side and the human on the other side. The challenge in this is to think beyond current possibilities and consider, among others, transport systems that can regulate, manage and perform autonomously. Dutch society with its own set of demographics, economics, spacial planning and government, is the focus area of this study. Technology as well as human behaviour and society are important aspects within this foresight study.

Scenarios

Scenario 1: Individual – International Individual Prosperity
Individuals seek after prosperity and luxury and work in casual relations for different clients. They deliver their contribution to global, virtual, shifting teams from their homes. They are not interested in the origin of products and services they consume, as long as those are delivered right in time to their door and fully ad-justed to their wishes.
Scenario 2: Collective – International: Global Environmental Awareness
People live in cities. Tasks are highly divided, hence people are highly specialized in their profession. Ser-vices are the dominant work field. New technologies are maturing. Products and services are made at the most suitable location. Government agencies worldwide have taken the lead for a healthy environment and manage the responsible use of natural resources. Companies make sure the economy runs smoothly.
Scenario 3: Collective – Local: Strong Region
People have a regional network of acquaintances and social activities. Due to strict environmental policies economic growth is no longer the predominant priority. Intensive reuse of natural resources and goods has restricted trade between regions. Society has shift her focus from economic ownership to right of use. A region hosts most of the goods and facilities needed, so people see no reason to leave the area, not even for a holiday.
Scenario 4: Individual – Local: Self-sufficient Unit
A worldwide crisis has triggered a dramatic shift in society. It has brought about the development of highly self-sufficient small communities, which are organised according to the principle “cradle 2 cradle”. Thanks to technological developments, habitats offer sufficient possibilities for existence, and large global production flows belong to the past. Sharing knowledge globally is key to accomplishing this. Autarkic communities take up a lot of space relatively. This has resulted in ruralisation and a redevelopment of urban areas.
Actions/solutions implied: Reinventing mobility is more than just “reinventing the car”. It involves the development of a new mobility paradigm and a full-scale alteration of the transport system. Mobility denotes the transportation of objects over a certain distance, in a certain environment, the movement of people, their patterns of life, work and recreation. The increasing speed at which time and place of social and commercial life takes place creates demand for new kinds, modes and scales of mobility.
Who benefits from the actions taken?: Society in the Netherlands

Meta information

Time horizon: 2040
Methods: desk research, individual interviews, interactive and creative meetings, visions, scenarios
Target Group: (Dutch) business people, policy makers and politicians
Objectives: Develop visions of how the citizens of the Netherlands will transport themselves intelligently in 30 years, input for transition models, serve as starting points for new initiatives, such as national (applied) research programmesor public-private cooperation.
Countries covered: N/A
ERA actors/stakeholders mentioned: business people, policy makers and politicians in the Netherlands
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Katharina Jarmai
Rapporteur's organization: AIT
Entry Date: 26.07.2012