An Environment Research Funders' Forum Report: Horizon Scanning Study
Code:
C06
Primary project information
Lead:
ERFF (now merged with LWEC)
Type of activity:
Horizon scan report
Date conducted:
2007
Date of Publication:
2007
Duration:
N/A
Summary:
The Environment Research Funders' Forum has produced an analysis of issues affecting the environment which might impact on the UK's interests over the next 20 years. In the horizon-scanning project, forum members and external experts identified broad themes of strategic importance to the UK. These themes were narrowed down to dimensions of uncertainty - themes that are developing in an uncertain way, perhaps approaching a tipping point, or about which we know too little. Examples of dimensions are cities and the environment, food production and sustainability of water supply. The final, prioritized list identifies 11 dimensions of uncertainty. The report describes these in detail, how they might develop and their relevance to policy. It also explores the potential impacts of these dimensions that we need to understand better and the research questions we need to ask. The reports ends with recommendations about how the forum should take this work forward; for instance, through reviewing research, monitoring trends and sharing outcomes and ideas with partner organizations.
Financed by:
ERFF (now merged with LWEC)
Budget:
N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector:
environment, food production and sustainability, water supply
Main report (full title):
An Environment Research Funders’ Forum
report- horizon scanning study
report- horizon scanning study
GRAND CHALLENGES
Geopolitical Challenges:
Food production; As world food supplies tighten, there is likely to be pressure to increase food production in the UK. There will also be pressure to increase biofuel production in response to concerns over energy security. The appropriate balance between imported and home grown food - and between biofuel and food production – is unclear. (volume 2, p. 7) Sustainability of the water supply; need for a long-term strategy for water. (p. 10) Changing behaviours; Individuals do not seem able or willing to change their behaviours in order to reverse anthropogenic impacts on the environment. (p. 12) Consequences of population movement; The world may see significant numbers of environmental refugees in the next 20 years. The consequences of population movement are unclear. (p. 20)
Geopolitical Challenges Shortlist:
pressure on supplier countries to increase food production due to growing shortages in world food supply; pressure on European countries to increase biofule production due to concerns regarding energy security; find appropriate balance between imported and home grown food; find appropriate balance between biofuel and food production; need for a long-term strategy for water; need for behavioral change in order to reduce anthropogenic impacts on the environment; the world may see a significant number of environmental refugees in the next 20 years; consequences of environmental refugee movements are unclear
Technical Challenges:
Deploying technology; There is a considerable range of technology that can be harnessed to tackle climate change. Not all of it, however, is ready for deployment and more work needs to be done to quantify their potential environmental benefits and any negative impacts. (volume 2. p. 22)
Technical Challenges Shortlist:
deploy existing technologies to tackle climate change; further develop existing technologies to improve their potential for tackling environmental problems
Mobility Challenges:
Transport and mobility; Transport within and between urban centres may become increasingly unsustainable. So, too, may transport in rural areas - and neither may be fixed by the market. There are implications for land use, energy crops, distribution of produce and connection of rural and urban populations. (volume 2, p. 18)
Mobility Challenges Shortlist:
address sustainability issues of transport in general; address sustainability issues of transport within and between urban centres
Cross-cutting Challenges:
Tackling behavioural change will require multi-variate initiatives that involve government, businesses and communities working together effectively. This may require new forms of partnership working. The combined effects of human interventions (climate change, land use changes, ocean acidification, for example) are changing the structure and functioning of ecosystems. (volume 2, p. 12)
Cross-cutting Challenges Shortlist:
involve government, businesses and the communities to tackle behavioral change effectively
Summary of relevant aspects
Connecting fields:
Water is a strategic resource affecting all aspects of land use. Government should set the agenda and influence key players in the water industry, in agriculture and in the construction industry. (volume 2, p. 10) The exact scale of population movement will depend on a number of factors, such as climate change and conflict over limited resources. (volume 2, p. 20)
Aspects of ERA Governance:
Credible information on the regional and local effects of climate change is needed to drive the policy agenda forwards. There is an opportunity to support world class science and to demonstrate how improved modelling can help develop practical responses to climate change. (volume 2, p. 16)
Aspects of RTI Governance:
Government and the research councils need to provide leadership on which technologies should be prioritised and where they should be deployed. As well as tackling existing challenges, new technologies will facilitate business opportunities in key areas of interest and boost the UK’s competitive advantage. (volume 2, p. 22)
Other Aspects of Governance:
Securing economic growth within environmental limits is the essence of sustainable consumption and production. It requires a new approach to public policy that changes the way we view the balance between the environment and the economy. This is not an easy shift to make. People want a better environment, but find it difficult to change behaviour. Increasingly, they are looking to government for guidance and direction. (volume 2, p. 3) Demonstrating the economic and social benefits of renewable forms of energy will i+C33nform investment decisions about the future energy mix and help increase public acceptance for onshore and offshore developments. Deepening understanding of environmental impact will ensure that rural areas are protected. (p. 5) Achieving self sufficiency in food production is partly a political issue and partly a technological issue. The outcome of the debate will set the agenda for agricultural land use in the future. (p. 7) Water is a strategic resource affecting all aspects of land use. Government should set the agenda and influence key players in the water industry, in agriculture and in the construction industry. (p. 10) Tackling behavioural change will require multi-variate initiatives that involve government, businesses and communities working together effectively. This may require new forms of partnership working. (p. 12) Population movement and growth within the UK will affect land use and put increasing demands on agriculture and rural areas. Building understanding of the global consequences of population movement provides an opportunity to influence the international community’s response. (p. 20)
Background information:
The Environment Research Funders Forum (ERFF) exists to support coordination of UK environmental research (see endnote for list of ERFF members). This comprises members that span both research provision and research utilization, and aims to create coalitions between shared interests. At its November 2006 Board meeting, ERFF members agreed to hold an horizon scanning workshop in October 2007 and that an advisory group would be formed to deliver this (ERFF 2006). The project was overseen by the ERFF Horizon Scanning Project Board. At its March 2007 Board meeting, Members agreed to commit to being involved in the process and to “use the outputs of the work to inform the development of their future strategies” (ERFF 2007a).
In May 2007, to inform the forthcoming October workshop, ERFF commissioned a “long-term horizon scanning study to identify the most important dimensions of uncertainty for the environment that could impact on the UK’s interests over the next twenty years”.
In May 2007, to inform the forthcoming October workshop, ERFF commissioned a “long-term horizon scanning study to identify the most important dimensions of uncertainty for the environment that could impact on the UK’s interests over the next twenty years”.
Scenarios
Actions/solutions implied:
Environmental research in the future needs to anticipate what will happen, not characterise what has happened; there is a need for strong leadership to tackle these issues
• the environment cannot be looked at in isolation from social and economic trends;
• the UK’s actions cannot be looked at in isolation from the rest of the world - we must act together;
• policy makers need new tools and approaches to help make sense of the complexity and uncertainty surrounding environmental issues; (volume 1, p. 7)
• the environment cannot be looked at in isolation from social and economic trends;
• the UK’s actions cannot be looked at in isolation from the rest of the world - we must act together;
• policy makers need new tools and approaches to help make sense of the complexity and uncertainty surrounding environmental issues; (volume 1, p. 7)
Who benefits from the actions taken?:
UK society through improved policy
Keywords:
Geographic scope: