VERA – Forward Visions on the European Research Area

VERA is funded by the European Union's FP7 programme for research,
technological development and demonstration under grant agreement no 290705

Horizon Scan Report 2007, Towards A Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda

Code: C04

Primary project information

Lead: The COS Horizon Scan was carried out by a specially established team that operated under the communal responsibility of the COS membership.
Additional project partners: The team’s work was supported by a number of sounding board groups. The BritishForesight organization did preliminary concept studies.
Type of activity: a horizon scan report
Date conducted: 2004-2007
Date of Publication: 2007
Duration: more then 2 YEARS
Summary: In one continuous process of convergence, the Horizon Scan project has produced a number of products. Beginning with a rich and strictly structured literature study, a final list of 150 problems and opportunities was honed. Based on this list, ten clusters were formed, about which scientists, journalists and politicians were asked to write. Specialized sounding board groups were set to work at the various moments of choice and transition to help keep the project productively on track. The results until now are:
-Literature study
-Lists of problems and opportunities + score list
-Cluster descriptions
-Alternative ‘State of the Nation’ speech
-Essay volume
-Website
-Card game
-Awareness raising
-Final report"

The ten clusters:
1. Infrastructure for the future
2. Changing economic and political world order
3. A global approach to dangerous infectious diseases
4. Work and education in a new context
5. Opportunities for robotics and inter-connectivity
6. Two related transitions: creating and utilizing space
7. Handling conflicts and security policy constructively
8. The engineerable and self-mutating human
9. Accelerating the development of new energy sources
10. What does ‘the graying of society’ mean?"
Financed by: The Horizon Scan is a project of the COS. The COS is the collaboration platform of the sector councils and the Netherlands StudyCenter for Technology Trends (STT).
Budget: N/A
Research area/market/industry/sector: This is a converging project, melting together information from several fields.
Main report (full title): Horizon Scan Report 2007, Towards A Future Oriented Policy and Knowledge Agenda

GRAND CHALLENGES

Economic Challenges Shortlist: Changing economic world order; work and education new context;
Geopolitical Challenges Shortlist: Changing political world order; conflict management;
Societal Challenges Shortlist: greying society;
Technical Challenges Shortlist: robotics; interconnectivity (interoperability?); engineerable human;
Health Challenges Shortlist: dangerous infectious diseases; engineerable human;
Mobility Challenges Shortlist: new context for work; cosmopolitanism; creation and utilization os space;
Cross-cutting Challenges Shortlist: infrastructure of the future; globalization

Summary of relevant aspects

Connecting fields: the challenges are not all sector-specific but combine several fields.
Aspects of ERA Governance: The study gives a "knowledge" agenda for researchers and research policy makers.
Aspects of RTI Governance: a. The rapid growth of scientific knowledge and technological possibilities demands timely anticipation of and risk-taking investment in knowledge and development.
b. The rapid growth of knowledge and interconnectivity requires new approaches for the retrival and synthesis of knowledge and the interpretation of information and data.
c. The rapid growth of knowledge and interconnectivity requires new approaches for the
retrieval and synthesis of knowledge and the interpretation of information and data.
d. Increasing complexity requires a trans-domain and long-term perspective. In addition to these four, recommendations were given to some special areas, like robotics.
Other Aspects of Governance: Foresight related guidelines:
1. Every policy needs to be investigated in terms of its future resilience.
2. Bundle foresighting activities for each of the named cluster themes and investigate which subjects require foresights that transcend borders and domains.
3. Stimulate broad application of the Horizon Scan’s data, information and knowledge.
4. Develop alternative policy options that can withstand the future.
5. Develope (inter)national cooperation 6. Horizon Scans are also of service at the provincial, regional and municipal level. [48]
Background information: "An evaluation of the COS in 2004 indicated that, in addition to the usual societal forsight studies regarding the organization of sector councils that transcend domain and disciplinary boundaries, there was need for foresights studies of a broader nature. By constructing links between domains and being sensitive to weak signs of divergence from what we might expect about future developments, a broadbased foresight can serve as the source for new foresight topics. It can thereby catalyze cooperation
with other organizations." [7]

Scenarios

Actions/solutions implied: a. The rapid growth of scientific knowledge and technological possibilities demands timelyanticipation of and risk-taking investment in knowledge and development. b. The rapid growth of knowledge and interconnectivity requires new approaches for the retrival and synthesis of knowledge and the interpretation of information and data. c. The rapid growth of knowledge and interconnectivity requires new approaches for the retrieval and synthesis of knowledge and the interpretation of information and data. d. Increasing complexity requires a trans-domain and long-term perspective. In addition to these four, recommendations were given to the robotics cluster, see page 49.
Who benefits from the actions taken?: The Netherlands innovation system.

Meta information

Time horizon: open - long-term
Methods: A horizon scan with several phases:
1. Literature study
2. National and international consultations
3. Identification of problems and opportunities
4. Evaluation and weighing of problems and opportunities – individual lists
5. ‘Coupling and opportunities’’ through creative sessions and consultations
6. Formation of clusters by drawing connections between domains and disciplines
7. Description of clusters
8. Essays per cluster
9. Knowledge and strategic questions per cluster
10. Report with prioritizing and recommendations for knowledge and strategic agenda
Target Group: probably the Dutch decision makers
Objectives: to create a knowledge agenda for RTI activities in the Netherlands
Countries covered: 27 member states
ERA actors/stakeholders mentioned: Mr. prof. dr. R.J. In ‘t Veld is professor at the Open University, professor of Good Governance at the University
of the Dutch Antilles and lector of Democracy;
Mr. Ir. J. H. van der Veen is director of the Netherlands Study Center for Technology Trends (STT);
Ms. dr. Ir. R. M. Klapwijk Delft University of Technology; Mr. drs. drs. B. T. M. Verlaan from Ministry of Education, Culture and Science;
Mrs. prof. dr. H. Maassen van den Brinkis professor of economics in the Economics Faculty at the University of Amsterdam etc;
Mr. drs. P. Morin is executive secretary of the COS and head of the commission bureau at the Ministry
of Education, Culture and Science;
Mr. drs. V. van Rij works as senior advisor for foresight studies at the COS bureau since 2003 and isnational coordinator of the ERA-Net ForSociety and dean of the Amsterdam School of Economics (ASE).

The report has a n extensive list of names from the sounding boards.
Geographic scope:

Entry Details

Rapporteur: Riitta Nieminen-Sundell
Rapporteur's organization: VTT
Entry Date: 14.05.2012